Futures linked to economic growth yesterday and tomorrow

Like all social activity, the pursuit of economic growth involves a continuous tension between memories of the past and hopes or anxieties about the future. Doomed to grow examines how past experiences and future expectations—or fears—have shaped discussions on economic growth in Finland.

The report provides insights into how the dominant ways of thinking about growth have taken shape and become entrenched: What has changed over the decades? And what might the future look like? Finnish discourse is also placed in the broader context of international societal and scientific debates, as well as global shifts in the operating environment.

The report explores three distinct time periods, each analysed using different types of material and methodologies:

The First Period (1800–1950)

This section offers an overview of economic growth before the concept of “economic growth” became a common part of societal discourse, from the 1800s up to the 1950s. While growth in Finland began in the mid-19th century, the term itself only entered public discussion in the 1950s. The theoretical framing of growth during this period is described as a transition — from broad ideas of progress and prosperity to a more standardised and measurable concept defined through national accounting and GDP.

The Second Period (1950–2010)

This part is based on a source-driven conceptual-historical analysis of how economic growth has been framed and discussed, especially in terms of future visions, from the 1950s to the 2010s. The analysis draws from a wide range of public discourse—such as government programs, parliamentary debates, and Helsingin Sanomat editorials—by combining conceptual history methods with the futures research method known as the “futures wheel.”

Based on the findings, Finnish discourse on economic growth during this period can be divided into four phases:

1) Growth in the era of welfare state building (1950–1973)
2) Questions about the future and continuity of growth (1974–1990)
3) Framing growth and future imaginaries in a competitive state (1990–2000)
4) Confronting the big questions of growth (2000–2010)

Each phase presented different frameworks and associated future imaginaries. The historical trajectory reveals how, starting in the 1950s, rhetoric around economic growth increasingly emphasised its necessity—framing measured growth as essential to Finland’s survival story. As a result, we have become trapped in the perceived inevitability of growth.

The Third Period (2020s–2040s)

This section analyses both the current (2020s) economic growth discourse and possible future pathways leading into the 2040s. In addition to academic literature and primary sources, the analysis draws on expert interviews and discussions held in a dedicated expert workshop organised as part of the study.

Current framings of growth are largely shaped by the perceived necessity or compulsion to grow—especially in relation to demographic change and maintaining welfare services. Experts emphasised the need for open debate on issues such as power, limits to growth, resource distribution, and what to do if growth no longer continues. Today’s discourse on growth appears deeply rooted in Finland’s historical narrative of being “doomed to grow.”

In recent decades, debates about the future of growth have increasingly questioned this necessity. Some envision Finland as a global resource reserve, while others stress moderation and local-level solutions. At the same time, theoretical discussions have expanded to consider the ecological and social limits of growth, as well as the possibility of a post-growth era.

In the 2020s, two somewhat conflicting narratives coexist. One story is growth-driven and based on high-level expertise, enthusiasm, collaboration, free flow of ideas, entrepreneurship, innovation, technology, and strong, stable institutions. It is closely aligned with modern growth theory. The other story of growth is viewed as something necessary to maintain and rescue existing structures.

Growth for what?

This report is also meant as an invitation to public debate. It provides a long-term view of how economic growth has been discussed in Finnish society — intended to inspire deeper reflection on both its history and future. Such reflection is especially needed today. The study opens space for critical thinking about which development paths we want to reinforce, redirect, or leave behind. The findings also highlight the importance of engaging in meaningful discussion about the mechanisms of growth and the broader societal transformations it is tied to — free from the historical burden of seeing growth as an unavoidable imperative.

---