Climate-Proofing Nordic Security: Preparing for a post-1.5-degree world

The gap between commitment and capacity

The Nordic “whole-of-society” approach to national security – wherein the vital functions of society are managed through collaboration among authorities, the business community, organisations, and citizens – is one of the most advanced in the world. However, this model was built on a foundation of regional stability, designed to absorb intermittent shocks, not persistent destabilisation driven in part by our new climate reality. Climate risks are already a part of the model, in theory. In practice, however, the capacity to address climate risks and coordination across sectors and countries have not kept pace. These gaps are increasingly consequential as the world heats up beyond the 1.5-degree threshold set by the Paris Agreement. 

Climate change amplifies the security risks the Nordic region faces. Domestically, extreme weather disrupts critical infrastructure and resource pressures test civil protection mechanisms. Arctic geopolitics is also shifting as ice retreats, further intensifying competition over mineral deposits. Meanwhile, disruptions to food and energy systems, rising migration pressures, and the spread of infectious disease in climate-vulnerable regions, coupled with declining overseas development assistance in these regions, pose cross-border risks in the form of humanitarian crises, migration flows, economic disruption, and heightened conflict risk. 

Central decision-makers are often unaware of just how exposed their institutions are, given the difficulty of translating complex climate risk analysis into practical security planning. Silos persist across different sectoral authorities, risk ownership is blurred across departments and levels of government, and the roles of the state, the private sector, and civil society remain unclear as risks grow more complex. 

As we enter an increasingly volatile climate landscape, the Nordic whole-of-society security framework requires scrutiny and reinforcement.

Strengthening Nordic security in the complexity of climate challenges

With funding from the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Climate and Air Programme (NKLP), the project aims to improve regional cooperation to build the shared understanding, awareness, and institutional capacity needed to manage complex and interconnected climate-security threats. It does so by bridging the gap between climate science and Nordic national security planning through complementary analysis and practical simulation. 

The project runs across three substantive areas:

First, the project maps domestic and transboundary climate-security risks across the Nordic region, going beyond direct environmental impacts to capture how climate change acts as a multiplier for geopolitical and social instability.

Second, a comparative institutional gap analysis examines national security strategies and preparedness frameworks across the five Nordic countries and identifies where governance structures are underprepared for compound risks. 

Third, a simulation exercise brings key security actors together — including public sectors working in climate change adaptation, national security, and civil protection — to navigate realistic multi-layered crisis scenarios, building risk awareness and response capacity through first-hand experience.

About the project

The Climate-Proofing Nordic Security project is led by Demos Helsinki, in collaboration with Halogen and Stockholm Environment Institute. 

Together, three organisations will conduct the study in the three mentioned strands and develop the following outputs:

• Integrated Analytical Report and Risk Map
• Climate-Security Policy Brief: key national gaps and recommendations across five Nordic countries
• Brief on Nordic Cooperation for Preparedness
• Climate Risk Simulation Toolkit
• Simulation Learning Report

The project is expected to end in December 2026.

For more information, please contact:

Lara Best-Dunkley
lara.best-dunkley@demoshelsinki.fi

Johannes Klein
johannes.klein@demoshelsinki.fi