The anticipatory policy cycle: not just preparing for the future, but influencing it

An anticipatory policy cycle enables two things: preparing for the future and influencing it. In uncertain environments, we often default to incremental, step-by-step adjustments, relying on what we know rather than what societies need. While this is a natural tendency, policymakers can overcome short-termism and move beyond immediate pressures by strategically integrating foresight into the policy design process.

Picture 1. The potential value of anticipatory policy

We’ve been testing the approach: Lessons from South Sudan

We piloted a framework for future-oriented policymaking—the anticipatory policy cycle—in South Sudan in collaboration with UNDP, engaging 40 senior civil servants across various departments. As part of this collaboration, a five-day workshop enabled public sector leaders to apply the framework in practice.

South Sudan is at a crossroads, undergoing profound societal change as it works toward Vision 2040 – a vision of a united, peaceful, and prosperous nation with robust democratic governance. Strengthening anticipatory capabilities within government and society is not just a necessity but a transformative opportunity to bridge immediate challenges with long-term aspirations.

The workshop’s purpose extended beyond simply practising foresight tools—it aimed to create actionable policies from the outset by applying different foresight tools at various stages of the policy cycle. Primarily serving as a simulation, the workshop demonstrated the power of foresight in policymaking by shifting participants’ mindsets, moving away from the constraints of today and toward imagining future possibilities first. Advancing the policy ideas generated during the workshop will require cross-stakeholder collaboration and comprehensive background research to build a strong foundation for future implementation.

See more similar cases here:

• Exploring the future of Sub-Saharan agriculture
• Anticipatory governance: Demos Helsinki’s work
• Capacities for anticipatory policymaking in North Macedonia

Elements of the anticipatory policy cycle 

The anticipatory policy cycle highlights the benefits and functions of foresight throughout the policymaking process. While this post illustrates its phases using selected foresight tools, it is important to recognise the breadth and diversity of these methods. This is not meant to be a rigid framework but rather a demonstration of how foresight can be integrated into different stages of policy design.

Picture 2. Anticipatory policy cycle

Throughout the policy cycle: Ensuring diversity of thought and voice 

Inclusivity is fundamental to effective policymaking. Our assessments of the future—and what we consider meaningful for it—are always subjective. Incorporating diverse perspectives increases the analytical strength of our policies and builds long-term commitment and support.

While all actors operate based on their understanding of short- and long-term futures, a shared vision is often missing. Inclusive foresight processes—drawing on diverse expertise and lived experiences—enhance credibility and ensure that future visions and policy pathways resonate with various stakeholders. With effective participation strategies and clear communication, foresight can be a powerful consensus-building tool.

1. First: Starting with the future 

Purpose: Challenge assumptions and embrace a holistic understanding of change

Foresight in this phase helps policymakers move beyond biases about a singular, probable future. By exploring alternative scenarios, policymakers can shift their mindset and consider the bigger picture.

Horizon scanning helps connect present-day observations with possible futures. Using tools like PESTEL, policymakers can map drivers of change—including weak signals, black swans, and emerging trends—to prepare for risks and opportunities. This phase is about “zooming out” from immediate pressures to position decisions within a broader strategic context.

2. Defining priorities and roles

Purpose: Identify what matters most and clarify agency, capacity, and influence

With a broader understanding of the future, policymakers can better position themselves as active agents shaping future outcomes.

Building on insights from horizon scanning, trend impact analysis allows policymakers to map alternative development paths—considering whether a phenomenon is likely to increase, decrease, or remain stable. This sharpens our understanding of future dynamics and focuses attention on two critical dimensions:

• Endogenous factors: Areas where policymakers can actively shape development through action or inaction.
• Exogenous factors: Developments unfolding independently of policymakers’ influence, defining the limits of agency.
  

3. Mapping opportunities and risks and casting resilient pathways 

Purpose: Identify strategic directions and uncover unintended consequences of policy decisions

Foresight goes beyond simply increasing awareness of potential future scenarios—it provides tools for translating awareness into strategy.

• Backcasting allows policymakers to define a desired future vision and work backward to identify necessary policy actions to achieve it.
• The futures wheel helps map intended and unintended consequences, enabling a deeper understanding of the ripple effects of policy choices.

By applying these methods, policymakers move beyond surface assumptions and develop a comprehensive grasp of policy impacts.

4. Stress testing policies 

Purpose: Strengthen policy options through challenge and negotiation

Decision-making is rarely purely rational—it is shaped by cognitive biases, emotions, and external pressures.

• Red teaming is a method for testing policy prototypes by challenging assumptions and simulating real-world constraints—such as political opposition, resource limitations, and societal reactions.
• By stress-testing policies in a controlled setting, policymakers can refine their strategies to anticipate resistance and unintended effects.
  

5. Implementing and adapting

Purpose: Ensure policies remain flexible and effective over time

Embedding foresight early in the policy design process allows for better adaptability once policies are implemented. Policymakers can create more accurate monitoring mechanisms by considering how alternative futures could shape outcomes. This ensures that policies remain agile and relevant, even as circumstances evolve.

Final words

This post introduced the anticipatory policy cycle—one way to integrate foresight into policymaking. While not an exhaustive model, it highlights how foresight can support future-aware, strategic decision-making.

Anticipatory policymaking is not a luxury—it is a necessity in an unpredictable world. Governments that invest in foresight-driven policymaking are better positioned to navigate uncertainty, build resilience, and shape the future in alignment with societal aspirations.

The question for policymakers is no longer whether they should engage with the future—but rather how they can embed anticipatory thinking into governance in a meaningful and lasting way.